{"id":12081,"date":"2026-07-06T17:25:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T15:25:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/?p=12081"},"modified":"2026-08-26T15:44:37","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T13:44:37","slug":"feb-economic-outlook-summer-2026-iran-crisis-brings-fragile-recovery-to-a-halt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/feb-economic-outlook-summer-2026-iran-crisis-brings-fragile-recovery-to-a-halt\/","title":{"rendered":"FEB Economic Outlook (Summer 2026) \u2013 Iran crisis brings fragile recovery to a halt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What are we seeing internationally?<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The latest FEB economic outlook shows how a still fragile recovery is once again being slowed by an external supply shock. The impact of the Iran crisis extends well beyond energy, affecting commodity prices, inflation expectations, investment decisions and competitiveness. What international institutions increasingly describe as geo-economic fragmentation is becoming ever more tangible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Global economy: <\/strong>Growth forecasts have been revised down to 3.1%. Tensions in the Middle East add to existing trade barriers and an already uncertain geopolitical environment, with repercussions for energy, metals and food prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • United States: <\/strong>The US economy remains relatively resilient thanks to investments in AI, data centres and digitalisation, which continue to support productivity and growth. Markets are nevertheless closely watching how Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will balance price stability, sustainable economic growth and employment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • China: <\/strong>Industry and exports continue to support growth, but weak domestic demand, persistent problems in the property sector and dependence on external markets illustrate the challenging transition towards a more consumption-driven growth model.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Europe: <\/strong>The euro area is flirting with stagflation. As a net energy importer, Europe remains particularly exposed to geopolitical shocks. The challenge is to preserve price stability, investment capacity and competitiveness at the same time.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Germany and France: <\/strong>Germany is facing high energy costs and increasing international competition, while France is being held back by political and fiscal uncertainty that complicates structural reforms.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Spain and the Netherlands: <\/strong>Both economies are showing greater resilience thanks to stronger domestic demand, investment and favourable labour market dynamics, underlining the importance of a robust internal economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    And Belgium?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Belgium<\/strong> finds itself at the heart of these international developments. Private consumption remains virtually the only engine of growth, but the latest inflation shock is beginning to weaken even that driver, with inflation rising from 1.65% in January to 4% in April. Companies remain cautious in their investment decisions, focusing primarily on energy efficiency and rationalisation, while tighter credit conditions are putting additional pressure on investment activity. At the same time, exports are making only a limited contribution to economic growth. As a result, the growth forecast for 2026 has been revised down to 0.5%. Yet economic growth remains essential to safeguard our prosperity and to enable the necessary fiscal consolidation. It is therefore important that budgetary efforts do not further undermine business competitiveness and continue to provide room for investment and sustainable growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    What are we seeing internationally? The latest FEB economic outlook shows how a still fragile recovery is once again being slowed by an external supply shock. The impact of the Iran crisis extends well beyond energy, affecting commodity prices, inflation expectations, investment decisions and competitiveness. What international institutions increasingly describe as geo-economic fragmentation is becoming […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":12080,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[85],"rol":[81],"class_list":["post-12081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-studies-and-statistics","tag-public","rol-standaard-lid"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12081"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12081\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12100,"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12081\/revisions\/12100"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12081"},{"taxonomy":"rol","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/becobra.be\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rol?post=12081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}